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"The idea is that fewer but more specialized people will be able to do more in less time."
A false premise cannot result in a right conclusion.

This form of speculation is amusing, if not very flawed.

I disagree with your premise that programmers "(tell) the computer how to do things, rather than what to do". The state of the art is computers need humans to define who, what, when, where, and how. These definitions are based on a higher human decision of "why". A computer is only a tool of action and like any other tool of action the trend of progress will require more human effort to develop it, not less. As computer technology develops, interaction will become more abstract opening up programming to an ever-broadening group of people. I don't see any empirical evidence offered by you or Alex Iskold that indicates an reverse in this trend.

Wow, talk about major deja vu. Every year (for at least the last decade, probably a lot longer) there's someone saying that "within a few years" there will be no more need for programmers because all that will be needed is to give the functional specs to the computer which will create perfect programs from them.