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>Is open source ultimately a race to zero?
Yes, it is. Good question.

>In ten years will there be any cost associated with commodity (non-custom) software?
No, there will not be any cost associated in *purchasing* the commodity software. There *will* be cost associated with purchasing the *services* required to support the software systems that use this software.

>If not, will there still be a 'software industry' as it exists today, or will software simply be a by-product of the operation of other industries?
Let us get the confusion away. There will *not* be a 'software industry' as it exists today in a reasonable time frame. And software will also *not* be only a by-product -- innovation in software will continue. Tremendous opportunity to innovate exists. A lot more better-skilled developers will exist; however *only a very handful* will really make money from the innovation.

>Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
Innovation is a good thing for the software itself. However, you may perceive it as a bad thing because innovation will also tend to keep you broke in finances for a long period of time. Traditionally, that has been a story -- so, no surprises. People (they are not *bad* people) who market your innovation effectively will make more $$$. Number of such effective marketing agencies will always outnumber the number of innovators. Again, no surprises there. We just have to be mentally ready to continue to be broke in our own personal finances as on-going innovators in software.

>As a professional developer, do I need to fear this or feed it?
As a professional developer with passion for software development, you need to get excited to *feed* the innovation. As a professional developer with desire to feed yourself and your family first, you need to simultaneously *fear* this upcoming phenomenon and go out and look for parallel ways to diversify your financial portfolios effectively. A good balanced professional software development will bring prosperity to your own sphere of relations and the community of your physical residence.

Good questions after all.

I disagree completely! The last 5 years have only shown large losses in software
businesses. The majority of companies are struggling to find a way to survive,
and my bet is that the next two years we will show software companies aren't
able to weather the recession. And, the majority of us will likely become
unemployed and unemployable.

Hello dzvoter:

>And, the majority of us will likely become unemployed and unemployable.

When I think outside the box, I would remain employed and employable.