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Martin Woodward has a great article on software estimation, why it is hard and what Agile brings to the table. The approach I have seen the most in the past is the grand old FITA analysis (Finger in The Air) estimate. Get it right and your on time, get it wrong all hell breaks loose (most of which cost money e.g the cost of late delivery, the cost of extra development etc). If the coders finish early then chances are Parkinsons law applies and still costs you. Projects even fail completely or the customer walks away never to be seen again, software estimation should be science and not an art, but that's what it is.