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Sitting at a single point of time, and predicting everything will always remain the same, because that's the way it currently is...

Posts like this make me chuckle... Thanks for the laugh...

No problem :)

Trends take a long time to change course. Change is slow to occur. Things will continue on this path for a long time.

I've seen you're screenname all over this site. You're very active here. That puts you into the small minority of people I address in the article.

For Joe Average User (the hugely vast majority of people), my point stands.

Mark

I don't know that it will take that long and "Joe Average User" gets more knowledgeable every year. The Mac is very appealing to some. My 72yo dad just switched to a brand spanking new iMac after 5 years on an Atari ST and 15 on various Windows based PC's. He's well below average and he's loving the experience... I never would have thought it, but there it is.

My 15yo step daughter just installed Ubuntu on her own after watching me on it for the last 2 years... all on her own, and she's average. I've helped her a bit but the impetus was her own.

Change isn't as unusual as you think. I don't think they'll dominate in the next few years but the user base is definitely going up. Vista is the best thing to happen to Apple and Linux Distros (which, while definately difficult for the average user are 10 times better than they were just 5 years ago).

You may be right. You've got anecdotal evidence of 2 people switching to Mac and Linux. I've got anecdotal evidence, too.

The guy in my article who runs Ubuntu in a VM on his Windows machine (he sits next to me in the office) was shopping with his wife for a computer last night. She liked the Mac eye candy. She loved the fact that she could click a button, activate the built-in camera, and see herself on the screen. She then bought a Windows laptop. He, on the other hand, tells me he's getting a Mac for his next one. He's an expert programmer (techie elite). She's Jane Average who just wants to send email and surf the web.

My 65 y.o. parents do all they can to understand their Windows PC. They won't be switching anytime soon.

Still, you may be right. A critical mass might migrate away from Windows and cause the next revolution. Smart phones might be all that most people need for email, IM, and web surfing.

Overall, I enjoy the debate. You may be right. I might be entirely wrong. It's a good discussion to have.

Thanks for replying,

Mark

I've been using Windows, in one form or another, since 1993. I've been developing Win32 applications since 1995.

A few months ago I was faced with a choice; upgrade to Vista or upgrade to Ubuntu. I chose the Ubuntu route and I haven't looked back since.

Vista is a disaster. To me, Microsoft is not a tech company... it is a marketing company. Polishing a turd to look like a diamond is what they do best.

You're a brave man.

1) After trying to deal with Windows Vista, it will be a long, long time before I purchase any software from Microsoft.

2) I'm definitely on the right side of the curve and I now work off a Mac. Nearly all the co-workers in my department have switched form Windows to Macs in the last year.

I think there's a lot of momentum away from MS products right now. Maybe it will continue, maybe not; only time will tell.

I have to say, as a Vista user, it won't be anything that Apple or Ubuntu do that causes change. It will have EVERYTHING to do with what Microsoft does. I'm absolutely astonished... I've been a happy Windows user for a long time (crazy eh?). I was that guy saying "Bah, there's nothing wrong with Windows, it gets the job done and everything works on it. Install Cygwin for a better shell, have a nice day."

But then came Vista. I'm running SP1, and it does NOT work... I'm not exaggerating. In general, it just fails. While I haven't seen a blue screen or any major crashes, with Vista it's the little things that matter. Neither my printer nor my scanner work in Vista. The printer driver actually causes the print spooler itself to crash. The crazy thing is: They both work with Ubuntu. When was the last time we could say that Hardware X worked with Linux but not Windows?!!!

Explorer crashes multiple times a day (but I run each window in a separate proc to reduce impact). Lots of my old software simply doesn't work. Some new software I've downloaded simply won't install (even some which claims to be Vista compatible). The user interface really is garbage. It's no better than XP, sometimes it's worse, and it's always slower. I'm running top end hardware here. Finally, for some reason, Ruby is even slower on Vista than it was on XP.

Microsoft just continues to fail at improving the little things that matter (blogspam: http://www.clintonbegin.com/2008/03/windows-vistas-stupid-tiny-little-hard.html )

I bought my first Mac a month ago. Not because I think Mac is better. But because I think Mac is GETTING better, and Windows is getting worse. And for what it's worth, I was blown away by how good Ubuntu was, and it may find its way onto my PC laptop once I free a few last Windows anchors.

I'm not a Microsoft hater by any means (I like .NET, SQL Server and XBox 360). But I'm very close to being Windows free.

Cheers.

I think Fluxbuntu and Xubuntu are really easy Linux distros. I don't agree with your post but I don't vote it down because it is well stated and gives things to think about. Thanks for posting it